How to Use Statistics to Trick People (Without Lying)
TW: Math, not all of it though and I’ll let you know where it ends.
No matter how hard you try, observing information in the world is always limited by perspective and ignorance.
Everyone has 24 hours in the day to allocate how their time is spent, and that time is precious. When it comes to higher order (social) scientific endeavors, it would be very difficult for this to be done in a manner to simply observe whatever phenomenon one is trying to observe. Imagine if US census workers got their head count by counting every head within 3.8 million square miles. This kind of measure would be, at best, an estimate of the number you are trying to get. While the exact answer definitely exists, it is simply unobtainable. This is the first problem with the might of mathematics being squandered by the tininess of living things on this floating rock swirling around in space.
You may not realize it, but the concept of “eh, close enough” is something that is ingrained in your brain so well that you may not think about it, and this is the ignorance of humanity. If one was to take the ratio 2/3, a calculator will respond with .66667, but if you really think about it that makes no sense at all. 2/3 is just 1/3 plus 1/3 right? Well in decimals that exact same equation is .66667 = .33333 + .33333
Making fun of base 10 and rounding aside, the point of that exercise is to show how ignorant most people are when it comes to it. In the real world what’s a .00001 inch difference? Pretty much zero.
Statistics are useful because they often take advantage of our ignorance, intentional or not.
There are eight terms that most statisticians use when making observations, and I won’t go into all eight here, I will present a fun little example for all of them, in an attempt to make you giggle or something.
Mean “What do you mean you only make $30,000 a year? The average starting salary in the company is $80,000!”
Median “Even though almost half of all our investments have tanked in these trying times, we still maintain a median performance of 5%!)
Mode “My modal score on my tests are 80%! (Don’t ask about the mean, I have a D+)”
Percentile “I watch Rick and Morty, so that’s why my IQ is in the 90th percentile”
Percent Change “Our profits grew by 200% last year, while Walmart only grew profits by 3%“
Range “Our students come from a diverse range background of over 150 countries!”
Variance/Standard Deviation “Well, my shots are all over the place not because I suck, but because the wind was so variable."
Correlation Coefficient “Studies show that drinking massive amounts of Gatorade correlates with being as ripped as Ronda Rousey.”
Now these statistics come from a reputable source, but why with a bit of additional information do they suddenly seem really sketchy? Well it is because the best way to represent data varies.
The Mean
The mean strives with large amounts of data with non-numerous and non-extreme outliers. The mean is not good with small amounts of data (outliers are more of an issue), or when the outliers are so large that it skews the data to the left or right.
How long can a mammal survive underwater? Depends on the mammal, but if you were to look at all mammals, the average is about 30 minutes. Yet if I put every mammal underwater, it is likely most would die after only about 10 minutes. This is because whales, seals, and sloths can sometimes survive for over an hour while few mammals instantly die upon touching water. The median of this data is around 10 minutes, and so is probably the more desired statistic to know about.
The Median
The median is the middle data point. It completely ignores both the amount and the magnitude of the data above and below the middle. It is generally good with small amounts of data and is the most immune to extreme outliers. In the example above, you did not know the investments above 8% maxed out at 10%, while the lowest investments went as low as -50%. The mean investment score then averaged to about -30%, which is probably better information.
Alright. That’s enough math. Let’s get into some science and beyond.
It is hard to conceive of the external worlds beyond our eyes and bodies, but I think it is also a worthy endeavor to understand the reality we live in manifests in only one location, the mind. It is through that your experiences must buffer through in order to survive and learn. I want to get into this in a later post, but motivations are fueled in two manners, extrinsically and intrinsically. Abstract ideas like statistics, politics, and opinions have a sort of “neutral charge” to them because they are ultimately communicated with an abstract idea. Numbers and math, data that seems empirical and infallible can be transmitted with bad intention (whether deliberately trying to evoke an emotive response out of someone or shocking people to click on a link on a website) or received with unfair scrutiny (completely ignoring information presented due to either the unpleasantness a reality where it is true or disbelief that idea could ever become true).
This is where ignorance comes handy
Identity is a funny thing, but it is necessary for growing as a person. Protecting it is important as without a sense of where your place is in the world, you will spend far too many mental and physical resources chasing after an outcome you may not actually like. Society does a decent job with giving general guidelines to what it approves of and what it does not, but I come from the school of thought that society does too good of a job in hindering individual happiness.
Wow that was probably the most opinionated thing I’ve written here, so let me explain a bit.
Modern man invented language in order to communicate about the environment to their surrounding group. Statistics does that same thing with mathematics and counting. Over time, language is becoming less about pointing out hazards, food and hierarchy (and it honestly deserves a separate post as well), and more about communicating ideas. This I would say is how human language is different than that other animals. Now we have invented lawyers, teachers, and builders that use language differently to the point of using their own occupation specific jargon to meet their needs. Having these specialized roles and labels that are attached make it easier to identify what a person does throughout the day.
But all of them are human, and humans have motives.
Power lets motives have reality. Manipulating information and telling it a certain way is a way to manipulate that power. Power can be advanced, like a sword against a knife, or numerous, like 1,000 knives against a sword. Power is an arms race, and while that particular example sheds blood, it is perhaps the simplest example of how power acts.
The only difference between the effectiveness of a sword versus a knife, is that no matter how big your blade is, 1,000 is plenty to tear it down. In a world of billions, the numbers are surely not on your side
More next time.
